From Partners to Rivals? - GEW Intelligence Unit

This book provides a comprehensive analysis of the USA-EU relationship, exploring its evolution, challenges, and future prospects in a rapidly changing world.

Pros and Cons

The USA-EU relationship has been a cornerstone of global stability, fostering economic growth, technological innovation, and democratic governance. The transatlantic trade and investment partnership remains one of the world's largest, benefiting both economies. However, the relationship has also faced challenges, including policy divergences on issues like data privacy, taxation, and regulation. The EU's pursuit of strategic autonomy, particularly in defence and technology, has sometimes clashed with US interests.

Challenges

Key challenges include managing economic competition, particularly in technology and green energy, addressing China's growing influence, and navigating crises like the war in Ukraine. Divergences over climate policy, trade, and NATO burden-sharing have also tested the relationship. Additionally, domestic political shifts in both the USA and Europe, such as the rise of populism and scepticism toward globalisation, have complicated cooperation.

Republican vs. Democratic Approaches

Republican administrations, particularly under Trump, have tended to prioritise unilateralism and economic nationalism, often clashing with the EU's multilateral approach. In contrast, Democratic administrations, like Obama's and Biden's, have emphasised diplomacy, multilateralism, and shared values, aligning more closely with European priorities. These differences are evident in areas like climate policy, trade agreements, and international institutions.

Current Tensions

Under a second Trump administration, tensions are escalating over trade, NATO, and climate policy. The EU's push for strategic autonomy and its reliance on US security guarantees create a delicate balancing act. Divergences over China, energy exports, and digital regulation could further strain ties.